Vite won't see my laravel application

I've been away from laravel for a while and I'm just coming back to it for a new project. I've read the docs to try and catch up on what's changed but I'm falling at the first hurdle it seems.

I'm installing a brand new instance of laravel, running npm install and then npm run dev. I'm getting this:

I'm running laravel valet on my mac and i've tried setting the app_url in env to the correct one. I can access the laravel app fine via that url but vite isn't seeing it so no hot reloading. I've also tried running artisan serve, same result I just get the above page every time.

I followed the instructions at https://freek.dev/2276-making-vite-and-valet-play-nice-together but that didn't make a difference. I'm at a loss of what to try next, I'm used to laravel "just working" so this is all a bit weird for me!

As you can see below all my files are fresh from the install. Please help me!

{
    "name": "laravel/laravel",
    "type": "project",
    "description": "The Laravel Framework.",
    "keywords": ["framework", "laravel"],
    "license": "MIT",
    "require": {
        "php": "^8.1",
        "guzzlehttp/guzzle": "^7.2",
        "laravel/framework": "^10.0",
        "laravel/sanctum": "^3.2",
        "laravel/tinker": "^2.8"
    },
    "require-dev": {
        "fakerphp/faker": "^1.9.1",
        "laravel/pint": "^1.0",
        "laravel/sail": "^1.18",
        "mockery/mockery": "^1.4.4",
        "nunomaduro/collision": "^7.0",
        "phpunit/phpunit": "^10.0",
        "spatie/laravel-ignition": "^2.0"
    },
    "autoload": {
        "psr-4": {
            "App\": "app/",
            "Database\Factories\": "database/factories/",
            "Database\Seeders\": "database/seeders/"
        }
    },
    "autoload-dev": {
        "psr-4": {
            "Tests\": "tests/"
        }
    },
    "scripts": {
        "post-autoload-dump": [
            "Illuminate\Foundation\ComposerScripts::postAutoloadDump",
            "@php artisan package:discover --ansi"
        ],
        "post-update-cmd": [
            "@php artisan vendor:publish --tag=laravel-assets --ansi --force"
        ],
        "post-root-package-install": [
            "@php -r \"file_exists('.env') || copy('.env.example', '.env');\""
        ],
        "post-create-project-cmd": [
            "@php artisan key:generate --ansi"
        ]
    },
    "extra": {
        "laravel": {
            "dont-discover": []
        }
    },
    "config": {
        "optimize-autoloader": true,
        "preferred-install": "dist",
        "sort-packages": true,
        "allow-plugins": {
            "pestphp/pest-plugin": true,
            "php-http/discovery": true
        }
    },
    "minimum-stability": "stable",
    "prefer-stable": true
}

{
    "private": true,
    "scripts": {
        "dev": "vite",
        "build": "vite build"
    },
    "devDependencies": {
        "axios": "^1.1.2",
        "laravel-vite-plugin": "^0.7.2",
        "vite": "^4.0.0"
    }
}

import { defineConfig } from 'vite';
import laravel from 'laravel-vite-plugin';

export default defineConfig({
    plugins: [
        laravel({
            input: ['resources/css/app.css', 'resources/js/app.js'],
            refresh: true,
        }),
    ],
});

APP_NAME=Laravel
APP_ENV=local
APP_KEY=____
APP_DEBUG=true
APP_URL=https://mydomain.test

LOG_CHANNEL=stack
LOG_DEPRECATIONS_CHANNEL=null
LOG_LEVEL=debug

DB_CONNECTION=mysql
DB_HOST=127.0.0.1
DB_PORT=3306
DB_DATABASE=laravel
DB_USERNAME=root
DB_PASSWORD=

BROADCAST_DRIVER=log
CACHE_DRIVER=file
FILESYSTEM_DISK=local
QUEUE_CONNECTION=sync
SESSION_DRIVER=file
SESSION_LIFETIME=120

MEMCACHED_HOST=127.0.0.1

REDIS_HOST=127.0.0.1
REDIS_PASSWORD=null
REDIS_PORT=6379

MAIL_MAILER=smtp
MAIL_HOST=mailpit
MAIL_PORT=1025
MAIL_USERNAME=null
MAIL_PASSWORD=null
MAIL_ENCRYPTION=null
MAIL_FROM_ADDRESS="[email protected]"
MAIL_FROM_NAME="${APP_NAME}"

AWS_ACCESS_KEY_ID=
AWS_SECRET_ACCESS_KEY=
AWS_DEFAULT_REGION=us-east-1
AWS_BUCKET=
AWS_USE_PATH_STYLE_ENDPOINT=false

PUSHER_APP_ID=
PUSHER_APP_KEY=
PUSHER_APP_SECRET=
PUSHER_HOST=
PUSHER_PORT=443
PUSHER_SCHEME=https
PUSHER_APP_CLUSTER=mt1

VITE_PUSHER_APP_KEY="${PUSHER_APP_KEY}"
VITE_PUSHER_HOST="${PUSHER_HOST}"
VITE_PUSHER_PORT="${PUSHER_PORT}"
VITE_PUSHER_SCHEME="${PUSHER_SCHEME}"
VITE_PUSHER_APP_CLUSTER="${PUSHER_APP_CLUSTER}"